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惠譽:內地降準後中資銀行淨息差仍受壓 或延續至2024年
惠譽評級認為,中國今次降準將有助於緩解商業銀行日益加劇的淨息差壓力,但可能並不足以扭轉銀行利潤率收窄的趨勢,預期該趨勢將延續至2024年。 惠譽表示,最新舉措表明中國政府繼續實施寬鬆貨幣政策,以遏制經濟增長下滑勢頭並保持經濟平穩發展。然而惠譽仍認為政府不太可能採取大規模信貸刺激措施,因為大幅加槓桿可能加大系統性金融風險,同時政府將會著力避免這種情況的發生。 人行於9月14日下調金融機構存款準備金率25個基點,是自2021年7月以來的第六次降準,累計降準200個基點。惠譽預期,此次降準疊加近期的存款利率調整,將降低銀行的融資成本並緩解銀行業普遍面臨的淨息差壓力。中國去年建立了存款利率市場化調整機制,引導銀行根據市場利率變化合理調整存款利率。 不過,自2021年12月以來,人民銀行也已多次下調商業銀行貸款參考利率,即1年期和5年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)。惠譽預期,隨著今年下調LPR的影響逐步顯現,尤其是受到零售貸款需求依然疲軟的拖累,明年銀行業淨息差或將延續下行趨勢,或導致商業銀行營收繼續承壓。降息後的貸款重定價,加之引導銀行以低成本資金支持實體經濟的政策導向,使得銀行業淨息差自2022年的1.9%收窄至今年上半年的1.7%。(ca/k) ~
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