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Dojo引爆新能源車,新能源汽車ETF、稀有金屬ETF上升

格隆匯9月12日丨汽車零部件股上升,德邁仕、興民智通、合力科技、文燦股份、威帝股份、松原股份、超達裝備、保隆科技大升。

ETF方面,嘉實基金稀有金屬ETF、匯添富基金新能源汽車ETF、 國泰基金新能源車ETF、廣發基金稀有金屬ETF華安基金新能源車ETF基金、 國泰基金汽車ETF、平安基金新能車ETF、華夏基金新能源車ETF上升。

消息面上,特斯拉股價大升10%,市值猛增超700億美元。特斯拉股價引爆點來自,摩根士丹利發佈研報《解鎖特斯拉的AI魔力》,將特斯拉評級從“持有”上調至“增持”,將其12-18個月目標價上調60%至400美元,為華爾街最高目標價。

摩根士丹利分析師預計,特斯拉用於訓練自動駕駛汽車人工智能模型的超級計算機“Dojo”可能會給其帶來“非對稱優勢”,並使其總市值增加近6000億美元,增幅達76%。

Dojo是特斯拉研發的一台定製超級計算機,可用於訓練旗下的FSD系統。大摩指出,特斯拉汽車是裝滿傳感器的機器人,而Dojo將幫助其提高從邊緣收集和處理實時視頻數據的能力,並從已有的車輛隊列的經驗中訓練這些機器人。基於此,特斯拉制造了一款定製的AI ASIC芯片(D1芯片),比市場上領先的通用芯片(英偉達的A100和H100)更高效(能耗、延遲),成本也更便宜,Dojo則是由數千個D1芯片內嵌的AI數據中心。

短期內,Dojo可以加速特斯拉的軟件和服務業務的發展和貨幣化。長期來看,Dojo可能為特斯拉的軟件和硬件能力提供超越汽車行業的途徑。如果Dojo可以幫助汽車“看到”和“反應”,未來有更多市場可能打開,像任何邊緣設備上帶有攝像頭的設備,都可以根據視覺做出實時決策。

從國內新能源車銷量看,比亞迪再創新高,理想、蔚來領跑新勢力。

比亞迪8月銷量27.4萬輛,同比+57%,環比+4.6%,繼續突破歷史新高,1-8月累計銷量179萬輛,同比+83%。騰勢8月銷量11515輛,環比+3%,騰勢N7首個完整交付月銷量1480輛,騰勢 N8將於9月開啟全國規模交付。

廣汽埃安8月銷量45029輛,同比+67%,環比基本持平,終端交付達52057輛,高於8月生產銷量,交付倒掛主要受工廠生產能力限制,1-8月埃安累計銷量29.9萬輛,同比+93%,年銷量目標完成率達60%。

長安深藍8月長安深藍交付14736輛,環比+12%,深藍 S7月銷達10039輛,深藍1-8月累計銷量達69534輛。

新勢力,8月新勢力車企銷量排名依次為理想(銷量34914輛,同比+664%,環比+2%)、蔚來(銷量19329輛,同比+81%,環比-6%)、零跑(銷量14190輛,同比+13%,環比-1%)、小鵬(銷量13690輛,同比+43%,環比+24%)、極氪(銷量12303輛,同比+72%,環比+2%)、哪吒(銷量12103輛,同比-24%,環比+21%)和賽力斯(銷量3263輛,同比-68%,環比-23%)。

興業證券認為汽車板塊9/10月或有明顯超額受益,主要因為8月以來的價格戰對市場衝擊已有所反應,8月的價格戰和年初有所不同,更多是主機廠以及經銷商為鎖定旺季(9/10月)客户訂單做的營銷資源前置,實際終端需求不弱反而很強,9/10/11月乘用車月度同環比景氣加速向上,考慮6月、7月、8月高基數情況下行業乘用車零售同比基本持平,且2022年9月、10月:11月因疫情影響行業環比下行基數較低,預計乘用車零售2023年9月、10月、11月環比向上,而同比則加速向上。基於8月價格戰衝擊市場已有所反應+年底月度銷售景氣預計上行,預計汽車板塊或有明顯超額受益,看好 “高階智能駕駛+自主高端化+特斯拉三重新週期”三條主線。

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