《大行報告》摩通料內房股反彈不可能長期持續 估民營內房配股風險上升
摩根大通發表報告指出,由於政策放寬,內房板塊自8月低位計已累漲18%,跑贏同期恆指累升5%。昨日(6日)陷入困境的融創中國(01918.HK)甚至一日內飆逾六成,相對恆指同日近無起跌。
該行預期,未來一至兩個月的內房銷售數據應有所改善,加上強勁寬鬆勢頭,相信對市場的短期亢奮將持續一段時間。然而,最近的寬鬆政策並不會改變遊戲規則,因此估計內房股不太可能長期持續反彈,且可能會在銷售數據開始惡化之時結束反彈勢頭。
摩通認為,如以之前「典型反彈」為基準,內房股當前走勢已與平均回報率18%一致,儘管歷史最高回報率為25%(即仍有7個百分點的空間)。另外,以三個月高位為基準,國企內房可能出現10%的上行空間,民營內房(包括財困內房)仍可能出現20%左右的上行空間。
此外,該行指像龍湖(00960.HK)和新城發展(01030.HK)的高啤打值民企可能在短期內提供更多上升空間。雖然該行看好國企華潤置地(01109.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)和中海物業(02669.HK),但認為中國海外發展(00688.HK)和保利物業(06049.HK)有更大的上漲空間。
報告補充,中期業績公布後,股本融資窗口重啟,民營內房配股風險正在上升,特別是非財困內房,例如新城發展。
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