《大行報告》花旗:內房股下半年銷售前景未明 政策影響尚待觀察
花旗發表報告指,內房股短期受政策推動,9月股價回升,但9月份銷售復甦可能只屬「假陽性」,需要在11月重新評估,計及9月至11月可能有債務展期等信貸個案,較為偏好資產負債表穩定、有充足土地儲備及市場佔有率的企業。行業估值為2023年預測市盈率5.7倍、資產折讓63%、收益率5.1%屬於吸引,首選華潤置地(01109.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)、貝殼(02423.HK)、龍湖(00960.HK)及綠城中國(03900.HK)。
報告指,內房股下半年銷售前景未明,7至8月銷售出現雙底、首8個月銷售按年跌10%、以及去庫存比率偏低,大部分房企銷售前景不明朗,在政策扶持下偏向看跌,但預期9月出現復甦,11月是評估政策效果的真正時機。樓市能否持續復甦,取決於居民對就業及收入的預期改善,樓價平穩以及項目能夠如期交付。
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