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《大行報告》中金:內房短期需求端政策落地超預期 有望提振投資情緒
中金發表報告指,內地不動產服務板塊中穩健型企業上半年淨利潤平均按年增長27%、其他民企淨利潤平均按年下降11%,符合市場預期。 中金預計華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)全年零售額同店增速有望保持15至20%,而住宅與商業雙輪均衡驅 動下,全年核心淨利潤兌現30%左右按年增長的確定性較高。代建管理方面,綠城管理(09979.HK)仍處於基本面上行周期。考慮公司新簽訂單延續較快增長、在手訂單相對收入較為充裕,認為綠城管理未來2年有望實現25%至30%淨利潤複合增長。 中金認為物業及地產股價同向運行仍將延續,短期需求端政策落地超預期有望提振投資情緒、而後傳導至基本面則將進一步支持板塊行情。在此背景下,該行建議沿三條主線佈局不動產服務板塊,一是逢低佈局穩健型物企標的,以把握其估值修復、盈利切換收益,推薦保利物業(06049.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)、綠城服務(02869.HK);二是長期捕捉核心競爭力建設逐步兌現下的市值成長機會,推薦萬物雲(02602.HK);三是留足安全邊際、把握地產beta上行中部分低估值民企的波段性交易機會,建議關注碧桂園服務(06098.HK)。
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