《大行報告》高盛下調翰森製藥(03692.HK)目標價至16.86元 評級「買入」
高盛發表報告指出,翰森製藥(03692.HK)上半年收入按年增長1.7%至45億元人民幣,略低於該行預期的46億元人民幣,符合市場預期。創新藥銷售收入按年增長20%,而仿製藥銷售繼續按年跌18.5%。抗腫瘤業務按年增長4.2%,儘管阿美樂的銷售倍增,但被國家醫保目錄自3月份以來對治療非小細胞肺癌藥物降價40%以上所抵銷。
此外,該行指翰森製藥中期盈利按年跌0.7%至13億元人民幣,略低過該行預期的14億元人民幣,主要由於毛利率由去年同期的91%降至今年上半年的88%;國家醫保目錄與帶量採購調整降價,以及研發按年增長25.8%,雖然被更高的利息收入及銷售及更嚴格控制的行政開支所部分抵銷。
高盛認為,翰森製藥管理層並未更新對公司的指引,但該行料公司要達至最初的雙位數增長目標面臨挑戰,因意味著下半年需至少按年增長17%,但行業反貪腐或對公司下半年銷售及營銷活動帶來不利影響,對公司近期表現構成壓力。
該行下調對翰森製藥全年銷售預測,現料按年增長5.4%至99億元人民幣,意味下半年按年增長8.8%。將公司2023至2025年各年純利預測下調3.5%、3.8%及1.6%,以反映創新藥銷售增速放緩,以及藥品降價對毛利率的影響。維持對公司「買入」評級,目標價由17.61元下調至16.86元。
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