《大行報告》高盛升海底撈(06862.HK)目標價至18.5元 評級「沽售」
高盛發表報告指,海底撈(06862.HK)昨日(30日)舉行線上業績會議,即使自4月起月度復甦趨勢令人鼓舞,翻檯率邁向4次目標,管理層對未來加快擴張持審慎樂觀態度,並擬透過改善翻檯率及毛利率,優先改善現有分店的經濟效益。
報告指出業績會議主要驚喜之處,包括透過品牌、產品創新、消費者服務及會員管理上的加大投入,重新激活品牌動力,管理層對翻檯率回到2019年疫情前水平(即4.8次)持樂觀態度;縱使上半年毛利率改善已勝預期,管理層提及在成本節省方面仍有空間,特別是員工成本及折舊、攤銷方面。
高盛稱,留意到管理層強勁執行力,以及激勵計劃有效扭轉品牌下行。成本結構有效簡化,特別是員工成本及折舊、攤銷方面,改善了盈利能力及利潤率韌性。該行維持今年下半年及明年翻檯率復甦至3.9次預測不變,上調2023至2025年純利預測介乎34%至38%,主要反映中績勝預期,以及經營開支較低。
不過,報告指出,現時市場聚焦海底撈疫後正常化的增長預期,以及可否合理化其現時估值。該行現時估計海底撈明後兩年有各10%的正常化增長,分店溫和擴張,以及自今年下半年起經常性淨利潤率料穩定於12%。該行認為海底撈現估值相對偏高,加上憂慮重拾擴張後潛在舖面互相蠶食及利潤率稀釋,維持「沽售」評級,目標價則由16.1元升至18.5元。
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