惠譽:中國城中村改造計劃或令大型國企長期受惠 對新房銷售影響有限
惠譽評級稱,中國改造大城市城中村的計劃是振興經濟的最新舉措之一,這或將令大型國有房企長期受惠,尤其是擁有城市更新項目經驗、參與計劃中項目的可能性較高的房企。但是,由於該計劃重點針對大城市,其對中國房地產投資和新房銷售的影響可能有限。
最新的政策指引針對城區人口在500萬以上的特大與超大城市的農村土地,這有別於此前幾輪城市更新活動。截至2021年末,有19座城市滿足上述人口標準。相比之下,此前的改造活動主要針對三線或以下城市的城鎮土地,這些城市的人口規模也較小。惠譽認為最新一輪城中村改造將循序漸進地影響相關房企。上海和廣州市政府隨後發布的計劃表明,該輪改造可能至少持續十年。
此外,此次計劃重點針對大城市中的農村土地,這或將導致安置成本高於此前幾輪改造活動,且持續時間更長。這是因為城市中農村土地上的建築通常未辦理政府準建手續,因此各利益相關方之間的利益平衡更加複雜。之前幾輪城市更新中,原有建築大部分被拆除或重建,但惠譽認為此輪計劃有望採取較柔和的方式,保留很大一部分既有建築物。
惠譽認為,計劃中項目的投資規模和推進速度還將取決於地方政府和各自融資平台獲得新融資的能力,而未清償債務高企且財政表現較弱的城市的融資能力可能有限。
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