《業績前瞻》券商料港交所(00388.HK)中期多賺逾35% 受惠HIBOR上行令投資收益強
港交所將於下周三(16日)公布今年中期業績,受宏觀經濟挑戰等因素影響下,港股今年上半年平均每日成交金額1,155億元(較2022年同期1,383億元)按年下跌逾16%,但因全球主要指數及香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)上行,料令投資收益按年顯著上升(摩通料公司中期相關收益28.54億元,較去年同期8,900萬元大升31倍),為業績帶來明顯的支撐。
本網綜合5間券商預期港交所2023年中期純利介乎62.09億元至66.08億元,較2022年中期純利48.36億元,按年上升28.4%至37.9%;中位數65.66億元,按年升35.8%。綜合4間券商預期港交所2023年中期收入及其他收益收入介乎103.04億元至109.82億元,較2022年中期89.37億元,按年上升15.3%至22.9%;中位數107.42億元,按年升20.2%。投資者將關注港交所管理層對營運業務及投資收益最新指引。
【受惠高利率環境 投資收益明顯增】
中金料港交所今年中期純利64.47億元按年升33.3%,料收入及其他收益收入按年升21%至107.75億元。該行料公司第二季剔除投資收益後主營業務收入38.7億元按年跌8%(按季跌4%),優於現貨市場ADT表現(港股第二季日均成交額1,028億元(按年及按季各跌21%及20%),其中南下ADT錄301億元按年跌3%,佔港股比重14.6%,次季完成IPO只13家及融資額111億元(按年升128%及按季升67%)。該行料公司受惠全球主要指數及香港銀行同業拆息上行,料港交所今年中期投資收益及雜項收入大增至共28.89億元,對為業績帶來支撐。
瑞信估計港交所今年上半年純利66.08億元按年升36.6%,並今年第二季息稅後淨利潤達32億元,按季跌7%,估計收入53億元,按季跌4%。該行料港股今年第二季的日均成交額達1,030億元,較首季的1,280億元放緩。該行料港交所次季淨投資收益(NII)達15億元,由於利率在高水平維持較長時間,相信未來淨淨投資收益維持穩健。
摩根士丹利估計港交所今年上半年純利65.66億元按年升35.8%;該行料港交所今年第二季純利31.58億元按年升46%,料收入54.24億元按年升28%,估計投資收益淨額15.76億元按年升逾51倍。該行料港交所派今年每股中期息4.66元。
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本網綜合5間券商預期港交所2023年中期純利介乎62.09億元至66.08億元,較2022年中期純利48.36億元,按年上升28.4%至37.9%;中位數65.66億元,按年升35.8%。
券商│2023年中期純利預測(港元)│按年變幅
瑞信│66.08億元│+36.6%
中信建投証券│65.68億元│+35.8%
摩根士丹利│65.66億元│+35.8%
中金│64.47億元│+33.3%
摩根大通│62.09億元│+28.4%
按港交所2022年中期純利48.36億元計
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綜合4間券商預期港交所2023年中期收入及其他收益收入介乎103.04億元至109.82億元,較2022年中期89.37億元,按年上升15.3%至22.9%;中位數107.42億元,按年升20.2%。
券商│2023年中期收入及其他收益收入預測│按年變幅
大摩│109.82億元│+22.9%
中金│107.75億元│+20.6%
摩根大通│107.09億元│+19.8%
瑞信│103.04億元│+15.3%
按港交所2022年中期主要業務收入89.37億元
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