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《大行報告》瑞銀下調內房股目標價 降碧桂園(02007.HK)、雅居樂(03383.HK)及新城發展(01030.HK)評級至「沽售」
瑞銀發表研究報告指,內房市場不存在系統性風險,不過,城市間差異較大,令資本充足、擁有良好土地儲備公司(通常是國營內房)的表現優於私營開發商,而私營開發商可能因二手樓放盤增加而面臨更大壓力。這對二手樓經紀(如貝殼-W(02423.HK))來說有積極作用,或受惠於二手交易增加。該行首選華潤置地(01109.HK)和越秀地產(00123.HK)。 該行預計中國2023至30年的住宅需求為每年8.42億平方米,而今年新樓銷量料為10億平方米。雖然目前系統性風險很低,但認為二手放盤增加可能對開發商和建築活動產生負面影響。該行將2023至24年全國房地產銷售面積預測修訂至按年下降10%,而2025年則下降7%,並將2023及24年新開工預測修改為降27%及降10%。由於停滯項目恢復,預計2023及24年竣工量將分別增長9%和5%。 該行亦下調多隻內房股的評級及目標價,是由於它們對低線城市的業務敞口較高及土地收購緩慢。 瑞銀發表研究報告,對內房股投資評級及目標價表列如下: 股份 | 投資評級 | 目標價(港元) 雅居樂集團(03383.HK) | 中性 -> 沽售 | 2.5元 -> 1元 中國金茂(00817.HK) | 買入 -> 中性 | 2.3元 -> 1.35元 中國海外發展(00688.HK) | 中性 | 21元 -> 18.6元 越秀地產(00123.HK) | 買入 | 13元 -> 11.7元 碧桂園(02007.HK) | 中性 -> 沽售 | 2.7元 -> 1.2元 龍湖集團(00960.HK) | 中性 | 25.7元 -> 21元 新城發展(01030.HK) | 買入 -> 沽售 | 3.6元 -> 1.5元
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