美聯:料第三季樓市成交一手穩二手軟 籲撤辣振經濟
年初通關刺激首季住宅物業交投表現亮麗,3月份新盤銷售曾突破逾2,000宗水平,惟在加息陰霾下,樓市由次季起「急轉彎」,6月一手成交僅錄約600宗水平。
美聯物業住宅部行政總裁(港澳)布少明指出,加息壓力未除,資金暫時難以迴流樓市,致令次季起復蘇力道減弱,一二手成交雙雙減少的同時,成交金額更出現顯着下跌。相信短期內「息魔」將持續困擾投資市場,料第三季樓市出現「一手穩二手軟」的情況,預期季內新盤交投將錄約2,800宗水平,較次季微升2%。
布少明指出,現時二手成交量已經貼近疫情時的水平,樓價更已經出現回軟的跡象。由於目前難以確定加息週期何時完結,故相信第三季的本港樓市交投將持續受壓,二手交投價量亦將繼續受壓,料季內二手成交僅錄約8,300宗水平,按季再跌9.8%,並創近一年季度新低;樓價或持續受壓,出現約1%的跌幅。相反,一手交投因發展商的進取開價策略,對置業人士更具吸引力,相信在新盤不斷貼市價推售下,第三季交投將相對穩定,料期內新盤成交可錄2,800宗水平,較次季輕微上升2%。
布少明認爲,現時正是「撤辣」的最佳時機,呼籲政府以果斷迅速的政策,助香港加快復甦,加大力道吸人吸財振經濟。雖然政府早前已放寬自住物業按揭成數;然而,壓力測試則未有配合政策而放寬,在每月入息大大提高下,對部份換樓業主難以實現換樓夢,須同步放寬壓測纔有助市民換樓,故建議將15%新住宅印花稅稅率回覆至雙倍印花稅DSD。(ca/u)
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