《大行報告》摩通:憂內房危機蔓延 全國寬鬆措施發生概率增 料先降首付比率
摩根大通發表報告,昨日(18日)內房股跑輸恆指2%,主要原因包括市場對遠洋集團(03377.HK)、萬達和瑞安房地產(00272.HK)債務違約憂慮,並造成蔓延風險;加上國統局數據疲軟。過往數據反映,違約猜測通常都會影響市場情緒,例如世茂集團(00813.HK)及旭輝(00884.HK)債務違約後內房股於兩週內跑輸恆指7%。
摩通認爲,浙江最近放寬落戶限制幫助有限。同時中國恆大(03333.HK)業績呈資不抵債情況,或預示了大部分財困內房商的未來。目前行業希望落在全國性放寬房地產的潛在政策加碼。
在該行基本情境假設中,放寬較大機會侷限在地方層面,但由於銷售未如預期,全國性放寬房地產政策的可能性正在上升。第一步可能是降低首付比例。由於投資者預期低,該行相信在政策確認前,行業表現可能仍然差。
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