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《大行報告》大摩下調恆指基本情境目標預測至21,500點 維持中國市場「增持」評級
摩根士丹利發表中國市場半年度報告指,指今年首五個月中國股市出現大幅波動。MSCI 中國指數自去年底至今年1月27日期間累升17%後,其後至今累積調整22%。市場原本預期中國宏觀經濟強勁復甦,惟對結果令市場感失望,尤其是內地4月和5月的數據更為疲弱。該行亦指,中美關係緊張局勢亦導致了中國市場股票的風險溢價上升。 該行相信,最近內地較弱的宏觀數據表明了復甦不平均及不平衡,但認為此並非上升週期的結束,預計將在6月底或約7月初加大寬鬆政策措施力度,隨著就業市場和收入水平的恢復。隨著內地寬鬆政策的加強、宏觀復甦的以及地緣政治趨於穩定,該行預計中國股市將在下半年將恢復跑贏大市,該行維持中國市場「增持」評級。 大摩表示,由於盈利復甦延遲、貨幣前景疲軟和地緣政治不確定性,下調了中國股市指數目標預測。最新下調恆指「基本情境」目標預測由24,500點降至21,500點,時間延伸至明年6月(原為今年12月),相當預測市盈率9.7倍,料今明兩年成份股每股盈利增長各為6%及9%。該行予恆生國企指數目標7,320點(原目標8,250點),對MSCI中國指數和滬深300指數分別為70點和4,620點(原目標各為80點及4,500點)。 該行表示在「熊市情境」(Bear Case)假設下予恆指至明年6月目標14,300點(原目標16,500點),相當預測市盈率7.2倍,料今明兩年成份股每股盈利增長各為2%及3%。該行指在「牛市情境」(Bull Case)假設下予恆指至明年6月目標23,300點(原目標27,000點),相當預測市盈率10.2倍,料今明兩年成份股每股盈利增長各為8%及9%。 大摩亦列出其旗下港股及A股市場最新焦點股名單,新納入京滬高鐵(601816.SH),同時剔出龍湖集團(00960.HK),其他在名單中的港股還包括安踏(02020.HK)、香港電訊(06823.HK)華虹半導體(01347.HK)、美團-W(03690.HK)、新秀麗(01910.HK),中概股則有阿里巴巴(BABA.US)及中通快遞(ZTO.US)等。
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