《大行報告》中信証券:外資流出港股已至歷史高點 料下半年資金博弈持續
中信証券發表海外市場下半年投資策略報告指,受外部風險拖累,年初至今港股明顯跑輸美股,主題性交易主導兩市場表現。該行認為當前港股已較充分計入悲觀預期,業績與估值仍具吸引力。但2021年以來外資長線資金持續流出已導致港股交易量萎縮、賣空行為增加,多重偏交易型資金持續博弈的狀態。
該行指,外資流出已至歷史高點。年初以來外資再度流出港股超1,400億港元,而2021年以來外資累計流出港股已高達1.05萬億港元。同時,投資者情緒承壓導致港股縮量下跌,當前月均成交額已較今年春節前的1,360億港元回落至970億港元。從沽空情況看,近期港股賣空比例再度回升,當前已反彈至24.4%,接近歷史均值兩倍標準差以上的水平。反映了在缺少外資長線資金的背景下,各類偏交易型資金,包括對沖基金持續博弈的環境。 因此,在長線資金回流之前,港股整體流動性和投資環境承壓。
中信証券指,當前港股主要指數估值水平已具吸引力,從實際盈利增速趨勢的角度看,恆生指數每股盈利增速已於2022年第三至四季度築底。未來每股盈利增速預計將呈趨勢性向上,料港股基本面有支撐。
就港股配置建議,展望下半年,雖然港股的估值和業績優勢依舊顯著,但在缺少外資長線資金的環境下,各類偏交易型資金的博弈預計仍將延續。該行建議投資者關注有業績支撐以及政策催化的長期高確定性方向,關注三條長期主線,第一是內需驅動、第二是利率敏感行業、第三是「中特估」交易或將貫穿全年,後續關注低估值、有政策催化行業以及經營指標優異標的。(wl/u)
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