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銀行業危機給掙扎中的美國房地產股帶來創傷
uSMART盈立智投 04-19 16:40

美國房地產股在經歷了艱難的2022年之後,今年舉步維艱,因爲對銀行將收緊貸款標準的擔憂給已經受到利率上升打擊的行業帶來壓力。

在去年暴跌28%之後,標準普爾500指數房地產板塊在2023年上漲了約1%,落後於標準普爾500指數整體8%的漲幅。房地產是標準普爾500指數11個板塊中唯一一個在2022年和2023年迄今表現都低於基準指數的板塊。

推動今年困境的是人們擔心,隨着銀行對貸款變得更加嚴格,3月份硅谷銀行倒閉後銀行業的動盪將使房地產公司更難獲得債務。自SVB的麻煩於3月8日曝光以來,房地產板塊下跌了2%,而標準普爾500指數上漲了4%。

“目前的銀行業狀況並沒有讓房地產公司的日子好過一點,”大通投資顧問公司總裁彼得圖茲說。他說,由於銀行失去了存款,“他們只會更加謹慎地把錢借給誰”。

隨着標準普爾500指數房地產板塊較2021年底的歷史高點下跌近30%,投資者正在關注即將到來的收益以確定該板塊的近期走勢。根據Refinitiv IBES的數據,標準普爾500指數房地產公司的收益在2022年增長近11%後,預計今年將下降0.3%。

RW Baird的股票分析師Wes Golladay表示,如果這些公司想要讓投資者放心,就必須兌現他們的盈利預測。

“他們最近剛剛提供了第四季度盈利指導,他們必須實現這一目標,”他說。

投資者也在密切關注寫字樓需求,因爲美國一些最大的銀行將商業房地產列爲一個日益受到關注的領域,部分原因是自COVID-19大流行以來遠程工作激增。

標準普爾1500寫字樓房地產投資信託指數自3月8日以來下跌16%,部分個股跌幅更大,SL Green Realty下跌 26%,Vornado Realty股價下跌19%。

LPL Financial的亞當·特恩奎斯特在本週早些時候的一份報告中寫道:“雖然市場顯然已經消化了寫字樓房地產投資信託基金的很多負面因素,但拖欠率上升和空置率上升趨勢意味着未來可能存在更多下行風險。”

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