《大行報告》摩通:近期樓市交投疲弱 提供吸納新地(00016.HK)機會
摩根大通發表報告指,近期香港二手樓和一手交易的疲軟,提供了一個吸納新地(00016.HK)的機會。該行預計,發展商的主要新盤項目將在復活節假期後的短期內恢復,當前住宅價格的積極勢頭已經受到按揭利率穩定和經濟活動改善前景的支持。該行認為,新地的基本面被市場低估,維持「增持」評級,目標價131元。
該行表示,香港住宅價格由年初至今已上漲7%,發展商推出的大型項目需求強勁,整體售罄率超過90%。雖然今年首兩個月的開局緩慢,而且新地於上半財年的合約銷售額僅為130億元,但該行相信,集團將能夠通過推出大量項目來達到其350億元的全年度目標,預計這些項目的銷售率將保持強勁,料大多數平均呎價可能在1.5萬元至1.8萬元之間。
摩根大通指,新地年初至今的表現優於長實集團(00013.HK)和恆地(00012.HK)等其他大型發展商。然而,該行認為該股仍被市場大幅低估。按照目前的估值,如果以7%的資本化率對集團的商業物業進行估值,則其2,300萬平方呎香港土地儲備的潛在估值僅為每平方呎4,000元。假設整個土地儲備將開發為均呎達1.6萬元的項目,則潛在利潤率為37%。
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