《大行報告》花旗升中石油(00857.HK)、中石化(00386.HK)及崑崙能源(00135.HK)目標價
花旗發表報告,對今明兩年布蘭特油價預測分別由88和75美元,下調至80和72美元,而後年預測爲70美元。因此對中石油(00857.HK)和中石化(00386.HK)2025財年盈利預測增加55%至100%,推動目標價分別由4.3和3.4港元,上調至4.6和4港元。雖然對今明兩個財年盈利預測降低5至14%,惟仍維持對中石油港股「買入」和中石化港股「中性」評級,但對中石油和中石化A股評級爲「沽售」,因認爲A股比H股的估值溢價是不合理。
該行指,爲反映較高的進口天然氣成本,中石油將冬季未簽約天然氣價格從基準價格上調了70-80%。儘管如此,該行認爲崑崙能源(00135.HK)2022年下半年單位毛利保持在每立方釐米0.494元人民幣,好過市場預期季節性按半年下降,得益於上遊和終端用戶天然氣價格同步政策的推出,協助崑崙轉嫁天然氣成本上漲。至於派息政策方面,崑崙承諾派出盈利35%作股息,基於母企中石油有可能提高派息,或派特別息,預計崑崙今年派息增加是合理。該行將崑崙2022至2024財年盈利預測提高14至35%,目標價由9元增到10港元,評級維持「買入」。
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