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紙業股沽壓顯著 理紙(02314.HK)挫14% 玖紙(02689.HK)遭高盛降級至「沽售」
恆指今日(15日)輕微高開後轉跌最多近390點,低見20,726;現報20,783,跌330點或近1.6%;成交1,028.99億元。 紙業股沽壓顯著。理文造紙(02314.HK)午後跌幅擴大,最低見3.3元,創去年12月中旬以來約兩個月低。現報3.34元,跌14.36%,成交5,541.59萬股,涉資1.98億元。 同業玖紙(02689.HK)現報6.76元,跌3.7%,成交1,157.41萬股,涉資7,966.51萬元。晨鳴紙業(01812.HK)現報2.64元,跌3.7%,成交206.4萬股。 高盛發表報告,下調玖紙評級由「中性」降至「沽售」,目標價由4.4元微升至4.5元,受累行業產能持續擴張抵銷中國重新開放帶來的需求復甦,料行業毛利率續低迷,並反映於行業產能利用率有限;並料玖紙2023至2025財年間單位純利維持於每噸70至110元人民幣的低水平。而且其估值昂貴,現相當於預測2023至2025財年市盈率介乎15至26倍,遠高於歷史均值約10倍水平。該行對其2023至2025財年各年盈測分別降27%、升16%及降43%,以反映上半財年盈警及對箱板紙行業的毛利率預測更新。 該行維持予理紙「中性」評級,目標價由3.5元微升至3.7元,料其2022至2024年單位純利維持每噸130至400港元的低水平,不過認為悲觀展望已部分反映於股價,但單位利潤改善的催化劑有限。另高盛維持予晨鳴紙業H股「沽售」評級,目標價由2.1元降至1.9元。
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