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美國首次每年調整CPI權重,對下週二公佈的1月通脹數據有何影響?
格隆匯 02-12 18:09

美東時間2月14日8:30,美國勞工部(BLS)將公佈1月CPI數據。但值得關注的是,BLS調整計算CPI的支出權重,並引入更新季節性因素,這將反映在下週二即將公佈的1月CPI數據上。

 

美國勞工部更新CPI權重

 

2月10日,BLS 更新了用於計算消費者價格指數 (CPI) 的支出權重,以反映 2021年的消費者支出情況。

在此之前,BLS也會根據消費者支出模式和偏好每兩年對項目權重進行一次調整,上次調整權重的時間是2020年1月。隨着這一變化,BLS將每年更新CPI的權重。

本次權重調整最明顯的變化就是房屋權重上調幅度最大,從43.008%上調至44.383%,食品權重從13.867%下調至13.531%,而權重最大下調幅度是交通項目。交通權重從17.737%下調至16.774%。

具體來看:

房屋+2%:44.4%娛樂+0.3%:5.4%飲食+0.1%:14.4%服飾不變:2.5%其他商品和服務-0.1%:2.7%醫療-0.4%:8.1%教育與通訊-0.6%:5.8%交通運輸-1.4%:16.7%

 

權重變化影響幾何?

 

從近期物價變化趨勢來看,交通(二手車)是近期助美國“通脹下行”最大推動因素之一。

此前就有許多經濟學家預計1月份二手車價格降幅收窄,而最新版權重意味着,這一類別帶來的下行影響甚或更小。

Inflation Insights LLC總裁Omair Sharif表示,權重調整疊加二手車指數月度降幅收窄之下,二手車可能會令1月份核心CPI下降約7個基點。而12月份下降約12個基點。

同時,房屋CPI權重上升,主要因為租金(包括業主自住等值租金)比重由32.95%上調至34.41%。居住——主要是業主等價租金權重從略低於33%升至34.4%。目前,住房是美國通脹最大推動因素之一。業主等價租金12月上漲了0.8%。

這麼來看的話,就是下調了一個近期“降通脹”類別的權重,上調了一個近期“助通脹”類別的權重,將使短期通脹上升。

但動態發展來看,二手車價格開始上漲,住房價格開始下跌,對通脹的中期影響可能恰恰相反。市場預期新調整將為1月份核心通脹帶來壓力,但有助於降低其後的通脹率。

Sharif表示,隨着年內汽車售價上漲,而預期住房指標會放緩,可能對壓低核心CPI略有幫助。

投資界預期美國1月CPI同比由6.5%放緩至6.2%,環比由0.1%增至0.5%;1月核心CPI(不計食品及能源)同比由5.7%放緩至5.5%,環比維持0.4%。

然而調查是在發佈季節性調整因素的修訂和更新之前進行的,目前包括摩根士丹利提高了他們的估計。

摩根士丹利在一份報吿中表示:“隨着核心商品通貨緊縮暫停,方法論的變化提振了住房部分,1 月份核心通脹率應該會再次走高。” “更新的指數權重可能會帶來額外的波動性,但我們認為通貨緊縮的道路在 1 月之後完好無損。”

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