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《大行報告》中金:新能源車企1月受多因素影響令產銷承壓 特斯拉牽頭「以價換量」或帶動需求超預期
中金發表報告指,消費前置、疫情感染及春節假期影響1月汽車產銷,市場已有較充分的預期。全年銷量節奏有望呈現前低後高,總量有望實現正增長。 中金指,近期地方汽車消費刺激政策出台帶動政策預期再升溫,若中央層面的刺激政策落地,對總量增長的支撐力度更強,但建議保持中性預期。出口延續良好增長態勢,乘聯會口徑1月乘用車出口23萬輛,按年增長34%,按月下跌13%,維持高位水平。 PHEV銷量正增長展現韌性,新能源出口佔比再提升。月內新能源品牌銷量表現有所分化,比亞迪、理想等車企新能源銷量表現優於行業。1月新能源乘用車出口7.4萬輛,佔出口比重達32%,特斯拉(TSLA.US)、上汽集團(600104.SH)、比亞迪(01211.HK)分別達3.9萬、1.5萬、1萬輛,該行認為新能源出口量有望再上台階。 特斯拉降價背景下,中金仍然看好新車周期相對強勁、品牌力有一定積澱的自主品牌及新勢力;另一方面,當前內地市場對今年新能源預期比較保守,特斯拉帶動下該行認為以價換量是大趨勢,需求有望超預期,可能在3月開始逐步體現。 中金建議關注特斯拉,以及整車及新勢力如長安(000625.SZ)、理想(02015.HK)等。
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