《大行報告》野村:專家料抖音今年外賣業務每單成本10元人幣 難與美團競爭
野村發表研究報告指,去年抖音店內總交易額(GTV)達到780億元人民幣(下同),淨GTV為480億元,相比之下,年內美團(03690.HK)的GTV總額約為3,800億元。另外,根據獨立核查,美團團購券的兌換率通常高達90%以上,而抖音的兌換率為60%以上。因此,該行指,去年抖音的店內份額很可能達到美團的14%。而抖音的目標是保持強勁的增長勢頭,並在今年將其店內GTV總額翻一倍。
該行認為,今年這兩個巨頭將繼續競爭,相信中國重新開放可為他們帶來平衡,因為一旦客戶回歸,商家可減少為抖音平台提供大折扣的壓力。此外,該行認為,美團大眾點評憑藉多年來積累的大量用戶評論,仍然是線下商家具有競爭力和高價值的營銷渠道。
報告稱,抖音的外賣業務仍處於增長的早期階段,去年12月和今年1月的GTV約為3億元,而根據該行估計,美團去年的平均每月GTV為680億元。目前,抖音已委託順豐同城、達達、餓了麼等物流服務商完成外賣訂單,惟由於兩間公司在商戶數據取用權的問題上存在爭議,因此與餓了麼的合作並不順利。據專案估計在擴大主要物流服務提供商的覆蓋範圍推動下,抖音的每單外賣成本可能會從目前的約12至13元,降至今年每單10元;而據美團稱,其平台配送(1P)食品服務的每筆訂單成本為6至7元。
報告續指,運送服務在外賣業務中起著至關重要的作用,因為與其他非食品外賣相比,客戶對外賣的及時性和可靠性要求更高。因此,對第三方外賣平台的依賴將使抖音更難與美團競爭,尤其是後者已經獲得了巨大的先發優勢。
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