《大行報告》富瑞:航運業今年開局疲弱 看淡貨櫃合約運價 偏好乾散貨運
富瑞上周發表報告,指今年所有航運業指數(貨櫃、乾散貨及油輪)開局疲弱,主因春節(1月21至27日)前運量放緩。春節前貨櫃運量勢疲弱,對板塊逆風「雪上加霜」,因今年年度合約運價潛在低於該行估算,該行對上半年運量展望悲觀,該行偏好乾散貨子板塊,因行業基本面較佳,但春節後運費料續偏軟。
報告稱,上海出口集裝箱運價指數(SFCI)截至1月7月首周按周轉跌4.2%,屬去年7月以來最低。一度具韌性的上海-美東現貨運費持續跑輸大市,意味美國進口量疲弱。中國出口集裝箱運價指數(CCFI)按周跌1.2%至1,256點,較去年第三、四季均值大幅低出57%及25%。
富瑞估算貨櫃航運業仍有利可圖,主因年度合約支持,主要長途航線現貨運費已跌至低於收支平衡水平。不過,該行料今年年度合約運價將大跌。該行估算,新歐亞年度合約運價將於每標準箱(TEU)約1,000美元,遠低於去年的約4,000美元,較去年12月現貨運費均值1,062美元輕微折讓。
該行料今年跨太平洋航線合約運價按年大跌60%,但該估算可能仍過於保守,因40呎標準貨櫃(FEU)由亞洲運向美國西岸及東岸的現貨運費,較去年2月至3月關鍵談判期已低出74%至82%。
富瑞補充,波羅的海乾散貨指數(BDI)自去年12月23日以來累跌約25%,並創約四個月低,料源於春節前季節性疲弱。該行料春節後乾散貨運量將反彈,因中國專注於經濟增長,料刺激基建開支。此外,倘中國撤銷對澳洲煤炭入口禁令,或是乾散貨運潛在需求正面催化劑。
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