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《大行報告》大摩降中芯(00981.HK)目標價至15.8元 晶圓代工行業首選台積電
摩根士丹利發表研究報告,指該行對半導體行業明年下半年復甦的預期仍在,但建議審慎選股。邁向業績期,考慮定價能力強勁,該行對台積電及聯華電子予「增持」評級,惟預警晶圓代工廠明年首季指引或差過市場預期。該行料二線代工廠如中芯國際(00981.HK)、世界先進、力積電及穩懋半導體的產能利用率及定價或有重大下行空間,對中芯維持「與大市同步」評級,降明後兩年盈測分別14%及4%,目標價由16.8元降至15.8元,並料中芯進取的產能擴張或導致未來折舊負擔沉重。 該行偏好次序依次為台積電(首選)、聯華電子、華虹(01347.HK)、日月光投控、中芯、力積電,最後為世界先進。大摩予華虹「增持」評級,目標價35元。 該行料明年晶圓代工行業收入按年倒退8%。今年末季半導體庫存日數下降,受惠早前生產削減。不過,由於終端需求平庸,料明年上半年將有更多代工訂單削減。該行亦料晶圓代工行業產能利用率,將由今年的逾90%高位跌至明年料略高於80%。明年次季料屬晶圓代工行業谷底,台積電產能利用率料80%,聯華電子料70%,其他料低於70%。 大摩料台積電明年首季收入按季跌14%至15%,遜於原先料按季跌10%,主因來自高端手機及數據中心削單。該行料明年台積電收入按年僅微升,但料明年仍可為晶圓提價3%至6%,以反映其全球經營成本上升,如美國代工廠擴張。該行降台積電及聯華電子目標價至分別700及55元新台幣。該行亦予力積電「減持」評級,目標價降至22.5元新台幣。
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