《大行報告》大摩升本港地產股評級至「吸引」 料樓價明年次季觸底反彈及明年升5%
摩根士丹利發表研究報告指出,今年為香港住宅市場自2008年以來表現最差的一年,平均售價跌15%,主要受累於息率急劇上升、人口下降,及疫情與封關導致經濟疲弱,估計有關情況將持續多3至6個月。至於明年,由於利率見頂及內地與香港邊境開放,預測一手成交將增長28%及二手成交按年回升15%,相對今年首十一個月分別跌37%及39%。另預期樓價將於明年第二季觸底反彈,料明年全年樓價增長5%。
該行指出,當一手成交及樓價表現積極時,本港地產股的表現往往跑贏恆指,因此對本地地產股的評級由「謹慎」升至「吸引」,認為行業交易價格相當於資產淨值折讓55%,為廿年來最低水平。該行偏好低負債和高股息率的本港地產股,行業中首選新地(00016.HK),對其評級升至「增持」(見另表),其次偏好長實集團(01113.HK)及嘉里建設(00683.HK)。至於在零售領域更看好希慎(00014.HK)及領展(00823.HK)。
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