大行評級 | 大摩:予匯控(0005.HK)“增持”評級 料市場支持銷售加拿大業務
格隆匯11月30日 | 大摩發研報指,匯豐控股出售加拿大業務早在預期以內,而3倍市帳率的作價應受市場歡迎。加拿大匯豐佔集團税前盈利約3.4%,而且其業務專注加拿大本土;對集團其餘業務的影響有限,潛在資本釋放或佔匯控市值之8%,預計待2024年股東才可取得相應資本回報。
大摩認為,匯控基於2021年收益的17.7倍市盈率和3倍市帳率吸引,相信股份回購及派特別息將可提升每股盈利,並足以抵銷現有股東的盈利損失。鑑於匯控相對亞洲同業估值低,估計任何利好消息,均可推升股價,予匯控港股評級為“增持”,目標價為59.8港元,但因英國同業估值更吸引,僅予匯控倫敦股份“與大市同步”之評級。
匯控估計,出售加拿大匯豐的交易將於2023年第四季完成,大摩估計,屆時將為匯控帶來税前收益57億美元,將通過應計收益或一次性收益確認,再加上風險加權資產(RWA)減少約310億美元,應可提升其普通股權一級資本比率(CET1)約130個基點。相信匯控2024年下半年或會透過股份回購╱派特別息或者兩者兼備,將出售收益回饋股東。大摩估計,如果匯控能夠返還CET1提升帶來的全部收益,可向股東派發97.5億美元特別股息或以現價回購約8%的股份。
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