《大行報告》大摩:更嚴格防疫限制將影響美團-W(03690.HK)短期IHT業務 惟食品配送業務具韌性
摩根士丹利發表報告指,預期內地更嚴格的防疫限制短期內將影響美團-W(03690.HK)的到店、酒店及旅遊(IHT)業務。雖然在外送及IHT業務具彈性的利潤能力帶動下,第三季收入符合預期,但大摩預期公司第四季將未能延續相關盈利能力,指出內地中高風險地區確診數字持續增加,其中北京及廣州等美團業務核心所在市場受影響更為嚴重。
該行現時預期第四季美團外賣訂單將增長5%,在激勵措施調整下收入料按年升17%,但考慮到疫情及季節性的騎手補貼,單位盈利(UE)可能會按季下跌。大摩又估計疫情對IHT業務影響更大,預測第四季業務收入將按年跌15%。
由於新業務經營虧損維持穩定,大摩現時預計第四季美團收入將按年增長16.7%至578億元人民幣,非國際財務報告準則經營利潤料達到8,200萬元人民幣,非國際財務報告準則淨利潤料達11億元人民幣。
憧憬外送業務保持韌性,以及IHT業務在疫情和緩後快速反彈,大摩對美團長期前景看法維持不變,維持「增持」評級及目標價180元。(gc/w)
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