財報速讀 | 小米沒有驚喜，可期待的亮點還是造車
小米昨天公佈了三季度的業績，簡單一句話總結是“無意外地繼續下滑”。
集團總營收708億人民幣，同比下降9.7%，調整後淨利潤21億人民幣，同比大幅下降59%，已經連續三個季度營收、利潤雙下滑。
至於核心的、營收佔比超6成的手機業務，小米全球手機出貨量4020萬臺，營收425億元，同比降11%，至此小米已經連續兩個季度在智能手機、IoT、互聯網三大業務全線同比下降。
以上就是財報中主要的壞消息，其實也基本符合市場的預期，畢竟全球手機需求疲軟已經持續了幾個季度。根據科技數據公司Canalys的統計，2022年Q3全球智能手機市場連續三個季度同比下跌，是2014年以來最差的三季度。和二季度的情況類似，通脹高企、新冠疫情和地緣政治危機持續導致智能手機市場需求疲軟。
勉強能算好消息的是，小米三季度的全球手機出貨下跌幅度，是中國同行中是算小的，只下滑了8%，而同期oppo、vivo同比下跌超過22%，這得益於小米更分散的全球市場佈局。
展望下個季度，目前來看仍然是壞消息爲主，從上遊訂單來看，智能手機需求疲軟至少延續到明年，例如高通就在最近的財報裏下調了業績預期：“由於宏觀環境的不確定性，我們將2022年3G/4G/5G手機銷量同比預期從此前的個位數下跌調整爲雙位數下跌”。財報當日高通股價暴跌8%。在如此糟糕的大環境下，投資者只能在垃圾堆裏挖寶藏，找一些相對的閃光點，比如新品提前發佈、毛利率的止跌回穩等等。
考慮到寒意早已傳遍市場每一個人，利空已大部分priced in，有時市場反而是更容易被小驚喜所刺激。
最後是不得不提的新能源車業務。Q3小米的新能源車等創新業務費用爲8.3億元，根據此前溝通的口徑，2022年度新能源車和SoC芯片對於小米集團的年度調整後淨利潤影響在35-40億元人民幣。如果沒有這些支出，財報的調整後淨利潤應該會好看不少。
小米造車值得大家關注的一些關鍵節點：首臺工程車已經於2022年9月28日在小米上海下線；小米北京亦莊新城汽車工廠預計年內完工；工程車下線可以滿足今年冬季測試時間要求，目前工程車已經到了黑龍江黑河；業內猜測，首款車發佈會可能是23年8月的年度發佈會，首款車量產時間是2024年上半年，目前所知第一款車會是定位30萬以上的高端轎車。
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