大行評級 | 中金:上調騰訊(0700.HK)目標價至379港元 但遊戲業務曙光未到
格隆匯11月17日丨中金報吿指,騰訊(0700.HK)今年第三季收入同比下降1.6%至1401億元人民幣,高於該行預期1.6%,低於市場預期1.2%;經調整淨利潤重新恢復增長,同比增長1.6%至323億元,略低於該行預期2.7%,高於市場預期6.7%。利潤超預期主要由於增值服務、廣吿業務毛利超預期及銷售費用管控到位。
不過,該行認為集團遊戲業務的曙光仍未到來,其第三季內地遊戲收入同比下降4%,《王者榮耀》及《英雄聯盟》仍受整體消費水平疲軟影響,出現流水下滑。而季度海外遊戲收入展現小幅亮眼成績,在高基數的情況下按年增4%,主因海外電腦遊戲《VALORANT》表現強勁。此外,騰訊在內地存量承壓、未來產品線亮點不足的情況下,預計今年遊戲收入同比下降3%。
基於板塊估值有所回升,中金上調騰訊股份目標價16%至379港元,維持“跑贏行業”評級。另外,由於後續宏觀環境可能存在邊際修復,上調集團今年和明年收入預測1%至5,559億元和6,131億元人民幣,不過因處置美團-W(3690.HK)後導致税基擴張,下調今年經調整淨利潤預期1%至1,203億元人民幣。鑑於部分業務毛利改善明顯,明年經調整淨利潤預期上調2%至1,472元人民幣。
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