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《大行報告》大摩料美團(03690.HK)短期股價受騰訊實物分派利淡 但料影響會較騰訊以往分派京東溫和
就騰訊(00700.HK)昨(16日)公布決議將按合資格股東持有每10股股份獲發1股美團-W(03690.HK)B類普通股的基準,向名冊上股東按各自於公司之持股比例,以實物分派的方式宣派由公司接持有的約9.58億股美團B類普通股的特別中期股息。摩根士丹利發表報告表示,騰訊實物分派美團持股,料可能會利淡美團的短期市場情緒,但該行認為此事消息落實,亦可同時消除市場所擔心的不明朗因素。從騰訊以往分派京東-SW(09618.HK)股份的經驗表現,市場反應會好於預期。 該行指,從騰訊過去分派京東經驗觀察到,與騰訊今次分派美團持股存在一些相似之處,分派減持股份或可能為美團的短期股價帶來壓力,但預計與京東的情況相比,其影響會更溫和。 大摩指第一是騰訊於2021年12月宣布分派京東持股,導致京東當時股價立即受壓,但京東股價其後跑贏指數,該行亦認為與所覆蓋的大多數公司相比,美團的基本面(增長和盈利拐點)強勁,並不令人感到擔憂。第二是接收者(receivers)出售京東在美國的股票在分配後(2022年3月25日)有40天的禁售期,而該限制不適用於美團。第三是騰訊管理層在財報電話會議上表示,投資美團和騰訊在機構投資者中有很大部份重疊,騰訊希望相關機構投資者長期持有美團股票。 該行認為,美團長期基本面的前景不太可能改變,隨著內地調整防疫限制措施,將可支持公司2023年的增長再加速。大摩表示,看到騰訊落實分派美團持股的消息,消除了過去一年對美團的不明朗因素,建議投資者可此視為買入機會。該行維持對美團「增持」評級及目標價180元。
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