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惠譽:中國房地產支持新政影響尚待檢驗 料明年樓市銷售持平
評級機構惠譽表示,中國當局宣布出台一系列房地產行業金融支持性措施,新措施鼓勵境內銀行更積極地提供「保交樓」配套融資,為資金鏈緊張的房企提供臨時流動性支持,但認為目前尚未能確定房地產行業能否僅憑這些措施實現持續性復甦。 惠譽認為,新樓銷售大範圍復甦仍是房企流動性持續改善的關鍵因素,而需求回暖將取決於購房者信心和就業前景的恢復情況,最終是要視乎中國防疫措施能否持續放寬。惠譽又指,雖然當局強化「保交樓」支持力度,但房企能否按時交付優質住房的不確定性或將持續存在,繼續影響買家入市情緒,因此預測明年新房銷售大致與上年持平,新政策的影響尚待檢驗。 惠譽認為,新政策表明監管當局在中長期內遏制金融風險的決心,料將更多地依賴公共部門和金融機構解決房地產行業面臨的問題,支持經濟發展,預期打擊房地產投機的長期立場保持不變。但該行亦提醒,房地產行業復甦步伐仍具有高度不確定性,若新政順利實施,銀行加大對房地產行業的支持將會降低其存量房地產貸款敞口的風險,但若房地產行業長期無法復甦,則銀行的房地產貸款敞口增加或將導致其資產質量和盈利能力大幅惡化。
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