海通國際:估大部份民企內房股均欲配股 因境外融資渠道有限
就碧桂園(02007.HK)近日配股集資約39億元(約4.96億美元),海通國際發表報告表示,相信碧桂園配股所得將用於償還2022年12月到期的4.4億美元銀團貸款和2023年1月到期的6.1億美元優先票據。
該行認爲碧桂園的配售令人意外,令一些投資者猜測下次配股集資的內房股。該行認爲只要有足夠的認購需求,大部份民企內房開發商都會考慮發行新股。雖然今年下半年配售募集資金規模非常小,但開發商仍希望繼續配售,因令公司存續比每股資產淨值大幅攤薄更重要,而開發商目前境外融資渠道有限,境外融資能夠幫助開發商償還境外美元債務。
海通國際表示,內地房地產投資仍然很低,在2022年剩餘時間不太可能出現好轉,雖然隨着近期政策放鬆下,開發商的財務狀況可能會有所改善,相信這種改善可能會從2023年首季度開始廣泛出現。
該行認爲,投資者對內房股的焦點,很快就會回到銷售趨勢之上。2022年前十個月的物業銷售價值和數量分別按年各下降26.1%和22.3%。同時,根據Wind數據,2022年11月前13天,中國30個重點城市的銷量按年下降近31%。2022年11月上半月的銷售仍然緩慢。雖然近期的寬鬆政策明顯緩解了民企內房股的財務擔憂,但該行認爲下一個重點將回到房屋銷售勢頭。
從長遠來看,海通國際仍然看好相對防禦性的國企開發商,包括中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外宏洋(00081.HK)和越秀地產(00123.HK),因料國企內房開發商能提升市場份額。(wl/u)
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