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《大行報告》中信証券料阿里(09988.HK)估值壓制可漸得緩解 指政策積極及基本面迎修復預期
內地科網股今早抽上,京東-SW(09618.HK)股價搶高6.5%報213.8元,阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)最新報78.8元上揚10.9%。中信証券發表報告表示,根據阿里巴巴官方數據,2022年天貓「雙11」仍然實現交易規模按年持平(2021年天貓雙11全周期GMV(商品成交總額)5,403億人民幣。天貓依然作為年終用戶集中消費和商家經營主陣地,穩居雙11綜合電商平台份額第一。 該行指,2021年以來,天貓「雙11」GMV增速已逐漸接近全年GMV增長,「雙11」的營運策略也從追求規模增長轉向精細化營運。該行認為,內地未來電商大促將核心聚焦消費者體驗優化、商家經營賦能以及平台生態的不斷豐富,淡化GMV數字,追求健康可持續的高質量增長。該行對阿里巴巴中長期數字化商業服務能力持相對樂觀的態度,維持阿里巴巴(09988.HK)(予目標價141港元)及阿里巴巴(BABA.US)(予目標價141美元)均為「買入」評級。 中信証券指,今年「雙11」,共有超30萬天貓商家、數百萬淘寶商家以及超1,700萬商品參與活動,淘系平台商品豐富度及多元性仍然領先。分品類看,在消費者生活娛樂方式變化、健康及居家陪伴需求提升、新消費群體崛起等因素影響下,玩具、寵物、運動戶外、珠寶品類持續高增,根據魔鏡數據,珠寶鑽石、寵物用品及戶外登山「雙11」期間按年增速分別達48%、31%及16%。此外,截至11月10日,148個趨勢品類增長超100%。品類發展呈現新趨勢的同時,國貨品牌持續崛起,在102個首小時成交額過億的品牌中,國貨品牌佔比過半。該行認為,天貓作為內地最大的B2C電商平台,品 類趨勢洞察和品牌塑造能力仍然領先,作為商家經營主陣地的地位仍然穩固。 該行表示,維持阿里巴巴集團於2023財年至2025財年收入預測8,828億元、9,517億元及1.01萬億人民幣,按年各升3%、8%及6%;維持對其2023財年至2025財年Non-GAAP淨利潤預測各1,282億元、1,483億元及1,628億人民幣,按年下跌6%、升16%及升10%。該行認為,2022年以來互聯網行業政策持續釋放積極信號,疊加2023財年基本面修復的預期,公司估值壓制正逐漸得到緩解。該行對阿里巴巴在中國數智化進程中的持續領先保持樂觀。(wl/s) ~
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