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《大行報告》中金:內地新能源車企10月交付分化 疫情致行業逆風
中金發表報告,預計10月乘用車銷量按月持平,補貼政策將到期有望推動年末車市走強。據乘聯會,初步統計10月乘用車零售190.5萬輛,按年升11%,按月跌1%;乘用車批發226.2萬輛,按年升15%,按月跌1%。 中金認為,疫情多點擾動、油氣價居高不下等因素為車市帶來壓力;車企密集改款與投放新車、國慶假期促銷等因素為汽車銷量帶來一定支撐。展望年末購置稅補貼和新能源補貼政策即將到期,或將促使消費者提前釋放後續需求,疊加新車效應釋放,看好年末車市走強。 中金指,根據周度交強險數據測算,預計10月新能源上險量45萬輛、滲透率約28%,認為主要受到內地疫情反覆擾動供應鏈及消費走弱影響,呈現旺季不旺。從交付量來看,定位主流市場的埃安/哪吒 10月銷量分別為30,063/18,016輛,在9月實現快速突破基礎上,銷量高位企穩,繼續維持領先優勢;定位高端市場的極氪與賽力斯表現同樣亮眼;蔚來(09866.HK)、理想(02015.HK)守住月銷萬輛基本線,蔚小理分別交付10,059/5,101/10,052輛,三家逐步完成組織架構、供應鏈等方面的優化,期待後續交付改善。
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