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瑞銀上調內地全年GDP增長預測至3.2% 料明年3月前防疫措施難大改
阿思達克 10-25 13:15
瑞銀特約首席經濟學家汪濤發表報告,指內地第三季GDP按年升3.9%,超預期,較次季按年增長0.4%加快。主要得益於基建投資和工業生產增速大幅提速,以及服務業增速復甦幅度超預期,儘管防疫形勢仍存反覆。 報告稱,「二十大」會議並沒有討論短期經濟政策,符合預期。報告認為即將於12月召開的中央經濟工作會議對短期經濟政策有更大啟示,預計會維持寬鬆基調。儘管三季度經濟增長超預期,但高頻數據顯示10月經濟增長動能依舊乏力,尤其是線下服務活動和房地產銷售,而這可能會帶來進一步的寬鬆政策。政策支持加碼可能包括進一步下調房貸首付比例和房貸利率,為房地產開發商提供更多的資金支持,進一步加大信貸投放增加基建相關支出,以及更多流動性支持。 瑞銀表示,依然預計明年3月之前,防疫形勢不會明顯調整,消費和服務活動復甦可能持續承壓。未來幾個月,隨著全球需求走弱,出口增長勢頭或將放緩。 報告料未來幾個月房地產銷售和建設活動可能會在低位企穩,此後可能僅會溫和反彈。另一方面,未來兩個季度基建投資可能依然穩健。整體而言,該行預計未來兩個季度經濟環比增速可能放緩,其中四季度GDP按年增速料約3.9%。鑒於三季度GDP增速超預期反彈,瑞銀將2022年全年GDP增長的預測上調至3.2%。該行繼續預計從2023年二季度開始防疫形勢可能明顯好轉,維持對2023年全年GDP按年增長4.5%左右的預測不變。不過,中國有可能會在更長時間內維持現行防疫政策。
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