一文綜合大行於港交所(00388.HK)公布季績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
港交所(00388.HK)今早股價靠穩,現報252元跌0.3%。野村發表報告表示,港交所今年第三季核心收入按年跌23%(按季跌4%)大致符合預期,純利錄23億元(按年跌23%)則輕微低於該行原預期,維持「買入」投資評級,調低目標價由388.02元降至382.89元。
港交所昨午(19日)公布截至今年9月底止首三季純利達70.99億元,按年跌28%;每股盈利5.61元。首三季收入及其他收益為132.55億元,較2021年首三季所錄得的新高紀錄下跌18.3%。公司資金的投資虧損淨額達4.24億元,對比去年同期錄得收益4.6億元,主要由於全球股票及固定收益市場的估值下跌,令外部組合錄得公平值虧損淨額6.59億元。聯交所今年首三季平均每日成交金額為1,241億元,按年下跌31%。滬股通及深股通平均每日成交金額按年跌18%至1,013億元,港股通平均每日成交金額則跌37%至291億元。
單計第三季,港交所純利22.63億元,按年跌30.4%,高於本網綜合8間券商預測的中位數21.48億元;每股盈利1.79元。第三季度不派息。第三季收入及其他收益達43.18億元,按年跌18.7%。此外,港交所就特專科技公司上市制度刊發諮詢文件,建議為合資格科技公司提供上市渠道。
【季績符合預期 聚焦上市改革】
高盛發表報告表示,基於港交所第三季業績表現,輕微上調對其今年每股盈利預測1%及降明年每股盈利預測3%,維持「買入」投資評級,略下調目標價由398元降至390元,相當於預測2025年市盈率31倍。該行料本港新股上市活動於上半年已見底,料未來可逐步改善。
瑞信表示,港交所第三季業績大致符合預期,市場焦點集中於其推動的上市改革及LME的情況及投資組合,維持「跑贏大市」投資評級,將目標價由345元降至340元。瑞銀,港交所宣布就特專科技公司上市制度刊發諮詢文件,預計新上市規則可於明年實施,雖然估計日均成交不會因此在短期內顯著增加,但預期改革將提高港交所的長期競爭力,進一步多元化其市場結構。
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下表列出11間券商對其評級及目標價:
券商│投資評級│目標價(港元)
大和│買入│515元->415元
瑞銀│買入│405元
摩根大通│增持│400元
中信建投│買入│398元
高盛│買入│398元->390元
野村│買入│388.02元->382.89元
瑞信│ 跑贏大市│345元->340元
華泰證券│買入│339元
招商證券國際│持有│351.9元->268元
花旗│沽售│260元
摩根士丹利│與大市同步│252元
券商|觀點
大和│將2022年至2024年收入預測下調10%至15%,淨利潤預測下調21%至23%,反映香港股市情緒疲弱
瑞銀│第三季純利按年跌30%符預期,核心收入與市場走勢一致
摩根大通│淨投資收入和成本控制較好,推動第三季利潤勝預期
中信建投│第三季業績按季提升,人民幣港股通與上市制度改革持續推進具彈性向上
高盛│成本增長仍然相對較高,憧憬受惠內地資本市場進一步開放
野村|第三季淨利潤增長略遜預期,核心收入基本符預期
瑞信│第三季收入增長大致符合預期
華泰証券│投資收益改善使第三季淨利潤按季企穩,長期韌性有望加強
招商證券國際│第三季收入和利潤按年下跌,下調今年利潤增長及目標價
花旗│因投資收益疲軟兼營運費用,第三季核心收入按年跌24%遜預期
摩根士丹利|第三季收入按年跌19%符符期,因部分被較高投資收入所抵銷
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