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瑞銀:亞洲貨幣市場依相對穩健 中西方緊張局勢短期內難消退
阿思達克 10-06 15:13
瑞銀財富管理投資總監辦公室的《投資亞太:亞洲第四季度展望》報告指,亞洲貨幣市場依然相對穩健。 印度、泰國和馬來西亞出現外儲減少、匯率走貶的情況,但這主要是由於外部貿易平衡轉差所致,而非資本外流。而中國二十大後,料中共將迎來新一屆領導層,引領未來五年的國家發展和大政方針。另外,中國和西方國家之間的地緣政治摩擦再度升溫。中美兩國都將迎來重要的政治議程,這意味著雙方的緊張局勢不太可能在短期內消退。 瑞銀表示,亞洲的核心通膨並不像美國那樣嚴重,部分原因在於疫情期間採取的貨幣寬鬆政策較少。不過,高昂的能源成本、邊境開放以及美元創新高仍推動該地區通膨上升。若要避免大規模資本外流和貨幣貶值,亞洲還需跟隨美聯儲的步伐進一步升息。 該行仍然預計亞洲通膨將在第三季達到5至6%的高峰,隨後在年底前回落約100個基點。這一趨勢應會持續到2023年,未來12個月降至2至3%。不過,美元持續走強和大宗商品價格再次勁揚,可能會延緩通膨的下行趨勢。 目前來看,該行認為亞洲各國將充分收緊政策以遏制通膨、避免大規模資本外流並抑制貨幣大幅走貶。隨著美聯儲加大緊縮力度,多數亞洲央行也有意做出調整,比如近期印尼已升息50個基點。緊縮進程尚未結束,對於步伐較為落後的央行,第四季將是加快升息以穩定外匯準備的關鍵時期。 總體而言,2022年中國經濟增長預計將穩於3%左右。諸多重要會議將在今年第四季和明年第一季陸續召開,隨後可能將出現更為積極的政策轉變。再加上防疫措施有望放鬆,明年GDP增長預計將顯著回升至5%左右。 該行預計,明年第一季前內地政策不會有重大轉向。而防疫措施放鬆初期仍可能出現局部小範圍封控,但更有針對性,時間也會縮短。城市之間的出行活動應會回升,嚴格的核酸檢測要求可能放鬆。2023年第二季可能允許輕症居家隔離,從而為重啟邁出重要的一步。外國遊客入境的限制也可能放鬆,隔離期縮短至七天或更短,深圳和香港也可能在明年春季完全恢復通關。
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