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《大行報告》瑞信下調保誠(02378.HK)目標價至118.85元 傾向看好友邦(01299.HK)
瑞信發表研究報告指,看好友邦保險(01299.HK),因爲其資本狀況強勁,計及股份回購及股息後,股東的資本回報較高,及具備穩定的管理團隊。在利率上升的環境下,其內含價值(EV)亦較保誠(02378.HK)更具韌性。該行將保誠H股目標價由158.32元下調至118.85元,維持友邦目標價95元,兩企評級各「跑贏大市」。 以固定匯率計,該行估計下半年友邦及保誠的新業務價值(VNB)分別按年增長9%及1%,並將從疫情中復甦。該行料在2022至2024年,兩間公司將加速增長。當重新通關時,保誠應該會錄得更強勁的反彈,因爲該保險公司對香港離岸業務的槓桿作用更大。 該行提到,友邦保險在大多數主要市場擁有領先的代理規模和生產力。然而,保誠的優勢在於在亞洲擁有超過170間合作夥伴的銀行保險渠道,其中32間是獨家合作夥伴。在2023和2024年,預計保誠的壽險營運內含價值營運回報率(RoEV)分別爲14%和15%,而友邦則爲11%及12%。從中期來看,該行認爲兩間保險公司的兩位數營運RoEV具可持續性。
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