《大行報告》中金:內地調整首套房貸利率下限或提振預期 料下季新屋銷售築底
中金發表報告表示,人行、中國銀保監會發布通知,決定階段性調整差別化住房信貸政策。符合條件的城市政府(即今年6至8月新建商品住宅銷售價格按月、按年均連續下降的城市),可自主決定在2022年底前階段性維持、下調或取消當地新發放首套住房貸款利率下限。該行認為本次因城施策調整首套房貸利率下限,或有助於穩定和修復市場預期。自2021年四季度起,百城首套房貸主流利率已累計下行159基點達到4.15%(較首套房貸利率下限+5個基點),其中內地86個城市已達下限;平均放款周期也自高峰點(74天)下降至25天,金融端政策支持整體較為充分。
該行指,本次政策再次允許部分房價有下行壓力的城市(據統計,70大中城市中天津、大連、武漢等24個城市符合6-8月新房價格同環比均降的條件)階段性放寬首套房貸利率下限,該行認為這是在因城施策框架下的金融端政策的進一步發力,對於穩定和修復市場預期有一定積極效果。
該行認為內地房地產行業平穩健康發展有賴於多種政策合力,年內銷售或呈「弱築底、緩復甦」走勢。9月前四周周均高頻口徑新房銷售面積環比8月增長9%,按年跌幅有所收窄但仍逾兩成(-23%),中金認為基本面指標的持續修復除需要利率政策支持外,也有賴於「房住不炒」和因城施策框架下其他支持合理住房需求政策的不斷完善,同時也提示市場關注供給側圍繞企業信用問題的相關舉措。如果上述政策均能進一步發力並得到有效執行,該行預計第四季度新房銷售環比有望錄得一定改善,按年跌幅考慮到去年同期基數快速下降也將持續收窄,整體呈現「弱築底、緩復甦」態勢。 看多地產/物業股價表現。
中金稱,第三季度以來新房銷售整體較為疲弱,本次利率政策調整有助於提振市場預期,往前看,該行認為如果配合其他房地產行業供、需兩端支持政策,新房銷售第四季度或逐步築底、緩慢復甦。
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