《大行報告》里昂:白宮發生物技術倡議通告無禁止中美公司之間開展業務 長期仍看好中資CXO領先股份
藥明生物(02269.HK)今早(15日)股價反彈,盤中曾高見55.3元一度彈高8.9%,最新報54.1元回升6.5%,成交額達21億元;藥明康德(02359.HK)股價揚6.8%,泰格醫藥(03347.HK)股價亦升5.4%。
里昂發表報告,就美國白宮昨(14日)公布美國生物技術和生物製造倡議,將會就倡議投資20億美元,第一是五年內生物工業在美國製造基礎設施投入10億美元;第二是活性藥物成份(active pharmaceutical ingredient,API)生物製造投入4,000萬美元;第三是生物基材料投入2.7億美元;第四是生物安全投入2億美元;第五是生物安全投入投入2.5億美元,而白宮的公告中未有禁止美國和中國公司之間開展業務。
該行仍然認為,領先的中國醫藥研發與生產合同外包(CXO)企業(如泰格醫藥、藥明康德和藥明生物)更有可能在整個週期中做得更好。
里昂認為,美國醫藥供應鏈的回流取決於美國政府的資金支持能否覆蓋額外的製造成本(尤其是考慮到美國年初至今的通脹上升)。白宮所宣布在生物技術和生物製造方面投資20億美元,對比藥明生物和藥明康德在2018至2022年資本支出總共達到73億美元。
報告提及供應商變更可行性,指考慮到項目執行週期較短,早期實驗室項目轉換成本較低。後期項目(例如三期或製造)的轉換程序可能更複雜。具有嚴格內部合規規則的全球跨國製藥公司將對供應商進行評估根據多個因素,例如合規性、成本和效率等。而中國領先的CXO企業(如藥明康德和藥明康德)具有更詳細的海外產能擴張計劃。
里昂指,考慮到當前的市場情緒,消息面、資金流和美國加息的影響可能繼續超過基本面。但是從長期來看,該行認為領先的中國CXO參與者更有可能在整個週期中做得更好。
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