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《大行報告》瑞銀:市場於港股公布中報後下修盈測4至9% 最新薦6隻喜愛股
瑞銀發表港股策略報告,由於市場擔心全球經濟衰退,MSCI香港指數於8月累跌4%,表現遜於MSCI亞洲除日本外指數,特別是美聯儲局主席鮑威爾於全球央行年會發表「鷹派」言論之後。另一方面,隨著美國上市公司會計監督委員會(PCAOB)和中國證監會就中概股審計監管達合作協議後,似有跡象表明中概股退市風險正在緩解。然而,這對MSCI香港指數的積極影響可能有限,因為該指數只有約3%的成分股屬美國存託憑證。 該行指,MSCI香港指數已有91%成份股公布今年上半年業績,初步來看,成分股期內收入按年增長4%,但淨利潤按年則下降4%,而香港上半年實際GDP按年下降3%,原因是受新冠疫情影響。證券同業於企業公布中期業績後進一步下調2022年至2023年盈利預測介乎4%至9%。 瑞銀指,證券同業目前料MSCI香港指數成份股於2022年至2023年每股盈利增長介乎3%至19%,對比之下,該行增長介乎8%至11%。該行料相關盈利下修的壓力可能開始穩定,因今年上半年盈利已經佔全年預期的45%左右,基於疫情消退及政府派發消費券的影響下,估計今年下半年經濟表現會優於上半年。 該行認為,目前MSCI香港指數相當於12個月預測市盈率13.6倍,較歷史平均值低1.1個標準差,已經反映了一系列風險,包括潛在的更高資本成本和盈利下調影響。該行更新了喜愛的港股股票名單,新納入新秀麗(01910.HK),同時剔出恆地(00012.HK)。而該行喜愛的港股名單還包括友邦(01299.HK)、長和(00001.HK)、電盈(00008.HK)、銀河娛樂(00027.HK)及金沙中國(01928.HK),均予「買入」投資評級。
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