《本地樓市》瑞銀財管料本港未來6至12個月樓價持平或跌最多3%
瑞銀財富管理亞太區投資總監辦公室發表報告,指香港地區的房價經受住了疫情的壓力,住宅價格從2020年初以來僅下跌了1%。有限的新供應、低利率以及相對穩健的家庭槓桿水平,是住房市場保持穩定的重要原因。但是,人口外流、按揭利率和浮動利率上升,可能會不利於樓市情緒。
美國聯邦基金利率可能在年底達到3.3%,香港地區的利率也可能同步上漲。樓市在過往升息周期的反應並不一致,因為這很大程度上取決於當時的經濟狀況、住房政策以及供求形勢。按照目前情況,報告預計樓價將在未來6至12個月持平或最多下降3%。
多個因素也會緩解潛在升息帶來的壓力,包括本地經濟應會在未來數個季度復甦,通脹穩定在大約2%至2.5%的水平,私樓供應料在中期保持緊張。政府計畫興建更多的公營房屋,但在私人住宅方面,未來十年的供應目標僅為13萬伙,低於過去五年平均每年1.75萬伙的水平。
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