復星旅遊文化(01992.HK):1H22 CLUB MED淨利轉正;關注國內暑期旺季
業績預覽預吿1H22 歸母淨虧損1.5-2.5 億元公司發佈1H22 業績預吿:旅遊運營業務營業額(剔除匯率影響)預計同比增約198.0%,較2019 年同期增約0.3%(在海外仍受1 月新冠病毒奧密克戎變種影響和2Q22 國內疫情影響的情況下);預計1H22 歸母淨虧損1.5-2.5 億元,同比大幅收窄(1H21 歸母淨虧損20.05 億元)。分業務板塊:Club Med:1H22 營業額(剔除匯率影響)預計同比約+336.0%至約57.43 億元,恢復至19 年同期的90.2%;度假村容納能力同比約+122.4%,恢復至19 年同期約87.4%;全球平均入住率59.1%,同比約+16.5ppt,較19 年同期降約6.0ppt;平均每日牀價約1,517.4 元,同比約+40.2%,較19 年同期增約19.3%(剔除匯率影響)。受益於海外業務穩步復甦、公司堅持價值定價策略並有效管控成本,Club Med未經審計淨利潤轉正,同比大幅好轉、恢復至19 年同期大多數水平。三亞·亞特蘭蒂斯:受國內疫情反覆影響,1H22 亞特營業額預計同比降約41.7%至約4.87 億元(其中1-2 月營業額同比約+44.3%;3-6 月國內疫情加劇,營業額同比降約78.6%)。即便在疫情擾動下,1H22亞特EBITDA 利潤率達42.6%(其中1-2 月利潤率約57.8%)。其他業務:受疫情影響且尚處於業務發展早期,公司預計麗江復遊城(2021 年9 月部分開業)和託邁酷客EBITDA 於1H22 錄得虧損。關注要點Club Med持續復甦及拓展確定性較好;國內關注暑期旺季數據、長期休閒度假市場大有可為。1)截至2022/7/9 Club Med對2H22 的累計預定量(按一致匯率計的營業額)較21 年同期增約32.1%、較19 年同期增約13.7%;截至2022/7/9 對1H23 的累計預定量較21 年同期增約16.4%、較19 年同期增約12.7%。公司簽訂並計劃22-24 年新開17 家度假村(其中7家位於中國),我們預計2024 年度假村產能較19 年有雙位數增長。2)5-6月以來國內整體疫情及管控逐步向好,暑期旺季國內旅遊市場穩步復甦,三亞及麗江度假村入住率和牀價反彈強勁。發改委和文旅部發布《國民旅遊休閒發展綱要》1,提出優化全國年節和法定節假日時間分佈格局,我們認為長期國內休閒度假市場大有可為,看好需求端規模擴容和供給側提質升級。盈利預測與估值考慮疫情影響,下調22/23 年預測87%/7%至0.35/6.83 億元。當前股價對應7 倍23 年EV/EBITDA。考慮對休閒度假遊業務前景的看好,維持跑贏行業評級和目標價15.6 港元,對應9 倍23 年EV/EBITDA,上行空間37%。風險疫情後恢復不及預期;新項目開發不及預期。
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