快手-W(01024.HK):2Q22回暖或優於預期 基本面持續優化
我們預測2Q22 收入同比增長8.7%。 快手預計於八月下旬發佈2Q22 業績。我們預計2Q22 收入同增8.7%至208.0 億元,經調整淨虧損環比收窄9,494 萬元至36.3 億元,與Bloomberg一致預期(36.0 億元)基本一致。 關注要點 用户運營策略得當,用户增長或持續走強。我們認為公司在用户增長端的組織架構調整和策略迭代或在2Q22 持續釋放成效,疊加疫情期間居家時間變長與618 大促,我們預計2Q22 公司DAU或與1Q22 的歷史新高基本持平至3.46 億,MAU亦或環比持平為5.97 億;但考慮到1Q22 有春節假期,我們預計2Q22 單用户使用時長或略回調至125.1 分鐘,總流量同比增長38.1%。 疫情後電商業務有所回暖,廣吿或仍承壓。直播業務,我們認為近期出台的監管政策對頭部主播集中度高的平台影響較大,對快手影響相對較小;公司的頭部效應及對合規的遵守或吸引活躍主播加入快手。我們預計2Q22 公司直播營收同增10.6%至79.6 億元。電商業務,公司表示自5 月初顯現恢復信號,隨着物流倉儲等疫情因素解除,整體趨勢向好。我們預計受益於公司5 月提出的“大搞快品牌”戰略,更多的商家加入快手,疊加618 大促帶來的正面影響,2Q22 公司直播電商GMV或同增25.5%至1,825 億元,收入同比增長2.1%至20.3 億元。線上營銷業務,我們預計受2Q22 廣吿宏觀大盤疲軟的影響,外循環業務或繼續承壓,受益於直播電商的回暖,內循環或小幅提升,公司整體線上營銷業務收入或同增8.6%至108.2 億元。 降本增效持續進行,毛利率或有所提升。我們預計2Q22 毛利率環比提升0.5ppt至42.2%。公司收入結構或與1Q22 基本相同,但隨着各業務線條的持續深化運營與頭部品牌效應,我們預計2Q22 及全年分成成本及帶寬費用端會有一定優化。費用方面,得益於公司對獲客ROI的把控,我們預計2Q22 銷售費率持續環降0.8ppt至44.3%,研發費用同降4.3%,管理費率同比持平。我們認為公司朝4Q22 國內業務盈虧平衡目標邁進,盈利能力持續釋放。 盈利預測與估值 考慮到2Q22 疫後恢復進度或優於預期,且長期電商板塊有望持續優於大盤增長,我們上調2022 年收入2.75% 至930.5 億元,下調2022 年經調整淨虧損29.5 億元至103.4 億元;維持2023 年收入及經調整利潤不變。維持SOTP估值目標價112 港元,較現價有35.9%上行空間,對應4.4/3.6x2022/2023 年P/S,目前股價交易於3.3/2.7x2022/2023 年P/S。 風險 用户或商業化增長不及預期,成本或費用高於預期,內容及監管風險。
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