《大行報告》中金:截至6月底止南下資金累計流入超2萬億人幣 佔港股成交額20% 成市場重要力量
中金髮表以香港特區爲主題報告表示,從港股市場結構方面,在國內居民資產配置大拐點的背景下,更多南下資金的持續流入使得內地投資者正在成爲港股市場的一股不可忽視的力量。香港市場仍以機構和海外爲主導,但內地投資者佔比不斷提升。根據港交所《現貨市場交易研究調查》顯示,2020年海內外機構交易額佔據香港市場56.5%,個人交易額佔比僅15.5%。
成交佔比方面,海外投資者在香港市場依然佔據主導,成交佔比約41.2%。2000年起中國內地交易額佔比逐漸提升,至2018年內地資金成交額佔海外資本比重已經達到28%,在香港市場有着舉足輕重的作用。
中金指港股市場南下資金不斷壯大,2018年以來累計流入規模佔整體流入規模70%。2014年及2016年滬港通、深港通陸續開通,南下資金的淨流入規模也逐年攀升,約八年內累計淨買入攀升至2萬億人民幣。雖然在2018年出現小幅淨賣出,但不改其持續增長的趨勢。港交所(00388.HK)制度改革後中概股迴歸的利好力量扭轉南下資金流出勢頭,2019年南下資金淨流入 2,164億人民幣,2020年淨流入更是高達約6,000億人民幣,較2019年以前流入規模出現明顯擡升。
今年3月,地緣局勢和監管不確定性等問題發酵引發海外資金拋售,進而對市場造成衝擊,但即便如此,南向資金在此間依然流入。截至2022年6月底,滬港通南下累計流入規模已經超過2萬億人民幣, 其中2018年至今累計流入1.4 萬億人民幣,佔總流入規模的 70%。南下資金有效改善港股流動性和成交活躍度,已經成爲港股市場不可忽視的重要力量。
該行從成交額看,南下資金成交額現已佔據香港市場的15-20%。流動性較差是港股市場一直以來存在的問題,而南下資金有效活躍了港股市場,爲其注入了新的活力。南下資金成交額在港股市場的佔比逐年擡升,當前成交約佔港股市場總成交額的15%-20%,而該數據2016年僅5.5%。
從持股市值看,南下資金持股佔港股主板總市值的5%左右。港股通持股佔港交所主板總市值比例穩步提升,截至2022年6月底,南向持股分別佔港股通標的和港股主板總市值的7.5%和5.4%左右。
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