《大行報告》大摩引述吉利(00175.HK)料6月銷售按月續升25%至30% 惟供應限制或持續更長時間
吉利汽車(00175.HK)5月總銷量8.91萬輛,按年跌7%,惟按月升23%。摩根士丹利發表研究報告,指其零售銷售跑贏批發銷售,按月增長41%。新能源車銷售按月升43%至2.23萬輛,按年更升304%,滲透率升至22%創新高。值得留意,公司留意到旗下品牌「吉利幾何」(Geometry)系列良性客戶組合,銷售完全來自2C(企業對客戶)市場。
該行引述管理層稱,在生產及零件供應改善下,料6月銷售按月續升25%至30%。在強勁積壓訂單及渠道庫存不多下,需求端憂慮料不大,不過,供應限制料持續更長時間;6月積壓訂單持續增加。該行予吉利「增持」評級,目標價20元。
大摩稱,吉利生產復甦慢過預期,5月產能使用率僅約60%,多個生產基地受到供應限制負面影響。芯片供應仍緊張,但公司透過分散戰略夥伴、與本地供應商合作,以及為新車款引進另類芯片(特別是ESP),改善採購能力。這意味供應端完全復甦需時,很大程度取決於中上游供應商復工進展。
報告另表示,內地減免汽車購置稅或刺激內燃車需求,但料不會使新能源車銷售增長大幅偏離。大摩稱,減免汽車購置稅或提振內燃車及混能車需求,但吉利稱,沒跡象顯示純電動車需求受損,對新能源車銷售目標及長期電動化目標維持建設性看法。即使提價,5月吉利電動車品牌流入訂單維持健康水平,並維持全年度7萬輛銷售目標。
大摩提及,短期而言吉利毛利率展望好壞參半。利好方面,內燃車盈利能力料改善,受惠銷售規模復甦,及新車款的有利產品組合。惟利淡而言,隨機應變的採購策略及增加純電動車/混能車銷售佔比,或攤薄短期毛利率。整體而言,結構趨勢對長期毛利率軌跡或有利。
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