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嗶哩嗶哩22Q1業績前瞻:疫情下廣告及電商承壓,用戶及社區保持繁榮
uSMART盈立智投 05-30 19:53

整體業績前瞻:考慮疫情影響,我們預計公司22Q1單季度營收同比29%至50.5億元。

  由於新冠疫情帶來的宏觀經濟波動,以及主要城市如上海從3月中旬起的活動限制,公司調整收入預期,將22Q1收入預期由原53-55億元下調至50-51億元。

  我們預計公司22Q1營收爲50.4億元,同比增長29%。其中,遊戲業務收入預計22Q1同比增長12%,VAS收入同比增長42%,廣告業務收入預計同比增長45%,電商及其他業務收入預計同比增長11%;預計22Q1毛利率爲16%。

  用戶方面,MAU保持30%以上同比增速,DAU/MAU環比提升,單用戶日均時長創歷史新高。

  根據公司披露,B站22Q1平均MAU同比增長31.5%至2.936億,環比增長8%,DAU同比增長32%至7940萬,環比增長10%;DAU/MAU方面,221Q1 B站DAU/MAU爲27.0%,環比提升0.47pct;單用戶日均使用時長達到95分鐘,創歷史新高,反饋出22Q1用戶高質量增長以及社區健康運轉。

  遊戲業務方面,版號恢復發放利於新遊上線,關注海外及新遊發行節奏。

  我們預計公司22Q1遊戲收入以存量遊戲爲主,國內遊戲版號恢復審批,有助於推動B站獨代及聯運遊戲上線節奏,同時建議關注公司遊戲海外發行表現。

  增值業務方面,自制綜藝Q2起陸續上線,預計大會員將保持良好增長。

  22Q1 B站舉辦首屆元宵晚會《上元千燈會》,節目當天直播人氣峯值超2800萬。Q2起B站自制綜藝預計將陸續上線,其中4月15日《非正式會談》第七季已上線,《90婚介所2022》將於5月上線,《我是特優聲2》將於2022暑期上線。

  廣告及電商業務預計受到疫情影響較大,Q2或仍承壓,關注疫情防控進展。

  考慮廣告及電商的業務性質,以及B站主體工作地爲上海,預計兩項業務受到疫情影響較大,後續主要關注疫情防控進展。

  廣告業務進展方面,B站近期上線了特色廣告產品——“bilibili沉浸視頻流推廣”。該廣告產品爲樣式高度原生的視頻廣告形態,出現於用戶從首頁推薦進入視頻流,上下滑動觀看的場景中,目前野獸派、高潔絲、usmile、夢幻西遊等多個合作夥伴已經率先進行了投放。

  投資建議:B站擁有高質量Z+世代用戶,超過10年積累帶來全場景、多元化的優質內容生態,形成高粘性與高互動的社區護城河,短期股價波動較大,但不改我們對公司的成長價值及商業化空間持續看好。考慮22年疫情影響及宏觀環境不確定性,我們預計2022-2024年收入分別234.2/316.8/402.0億元,同比增長21%/35%/27%,對應PS分別爲2.7x/2.0x/1.6x,調整22-24年Non-GAAP淨虧損幅度(前值57.1/39.6/5.4億元,預計2022-2024年Non-GAAP淨虧損62.1/39.9/6.9億元,維持“買入”評級。

  風險提示:用戶增長放緩,活躍度和粘性下降,版權風險,PUGV內容生態不穩定,商業化進度不及預期,短期虧損擴大,行業競爭加劇,內容及數據安全等監管風險,疫情影響。

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