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渣打中國:人行下調五年期LPR顯示支持房地產行業強烈意願
阿思達克 05-20 10:52
人民銀行今日將5月五年期LPR由上次的4.6%下調至4.45%,一年期貸款市場報價利率(LPR)持平於3.7%。渣打中國宏觀策略部主管劉潔表示,這些舉措顯示了當局支持房地產行業的強烈意願,因爲5年LPR利率主要用於按揭貸款指標利率,很少用於其他貸款,這也表明需要做更多的工作來降低商業銀行的整體負債成本,以降低大部分公司作爲貸款基準的一年期LPR利率。 劉潔表示,人行在很長一段時間內維持非常寬鬆的銀行間流動性條件,二級利率遠低於公開市場操作利率,當局正在加大措施降低商業銀行的常規存款利率,例如在不久的將來進一步降低定期存款利率上限。 劉潔認爲,監於人民幣與美元利率出現分歧,且資本外流依然強勁,認爲人行進一步下調MLF利率的可能性很小。但由於貸款需求非常疲弱,認爲未來一個月1年和5年LPR利率仍有進一步下調的空間。 劉潔指,5年期LPR的歷史性下調和非常寬鬆的流動性條件,可能會在一定程度上緩解中國利率,不過市場可能會推遲對信貸強勁增長迴歸的預期,而強勁初步供應已在很大程度上被消化。
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