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電子行業底部掘金:行業熱點問題分析與投資策略
格隆匯 05-19 09:02

本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究,作者:徐濤 胡葉倩雯 等

當前電子板塊估值處於歷史絕對底部,核心資產價值凸顯,重申積極關注兩大投資主線:一、上游半導體看景氣度,“重資產”看本土化,“輕資產”看前三名,當前首推半導體板塊,重點關注同比增長較為確定的細分方向(設備國產化、製造本土化、客户結構優質的芯片設計廠商)。二、下游終端關注創新增量藍海:尋找確定性強的純增量下游產品賽道,重點關注汽車電子(電動化和智能化)、AIoT(手錶、VR);另也建議關注業績增長較為明確的細分方向,如手機存量市場中的摺疊屏增量。

行業估值分析與投資策略:

當前電子板塊估值處於歷史絕對底部,核心資產價值凸顯,重申積極關注兩大投資主線:一、上游半導體看景氣度,“重資產”看本土化,“輕資產”看前三名,當前首推半導體板塊,重點關注同比增長較為確定的細分方向(設備國產化、製造本土化、客户結構優質的芯片設計廠商)。二、下游終端關注創新增量藍海:尋找確定性強的純增量下游產品賽道,重點關注汽車電子(電動化和智能化)、AIoT(手錶、VR);另也建議關注業績增長較為明確的細分方向,如手機存量市場中的摺疊屏增量。

上游半導體看景氣度,投資重點如何定?——板塊投資策略:“重資產”看本土化,“輕資產”看前三名。

重點關注什麼?“重資產”看設備/製造本土化,“輕資產”關注客户結構好、全球競爭力強的設計企業。

半導體子板塊四個核心問題:   

1)行業景氣度能否持續?能持續!全球半導體銷售額成長,行業呈現結構性景氣特點:從普遍缺貨到“長短料”;

2)設備/製造子行業為何值得重點推薦?設備交期緊張+國產化景氣;晶圓廠產能利用率高企,產品組合升級和漲價帶動ASP增加;

3)設計公司投資思路有哪些變化?從去年關注“缺貨漲價受益”到今年關注“行業前三客户優質”;

4)功率半導體景氣度與供需分析?行業景氣度仍然樂觀,細分賽道增速分化,關注IGBT及SiC/GaN賽道 。

下游終端角度看行業,哪些藍海哪些卷?——板塊投資策略:重點關注汽車電子+AIOT增量+手機細分創新。

重點關注什麼?藍海市場看重點(汽車、AIOT),存量市場找增量(手機)。

增量藍海的四個問題:

1)汽車:電動化及智能化,汽車芯片變化和機遇有哪些?①域控制器變革;MCU國產化替代;汽車存儲;CIS增量;功率半導體。

從蘋果到特斯拉,是否能成為電子產業鏈新藍海?汽車電子化中的增量機會   

2)AIOT:耳機之後,AIOT誰接棒?智能手錶,智能家居

VR之後,元宇宙硬件關注什麼?整機進展,AR方向

存量市場的四個問題:

1)手機大盤趨勢如何?整體存量市場,關注下半年需求邊際好轉,以及品牌份額的變化

2)哪些細分有增量?重點關注摺疊屏產業鏈

3)產業鏈外遷可能性多大?短期看上海疫情或有擾動,中期看大部分環節不具備外遷經濟性,長期看國內結構升級

其他週期性子行業下半年還有哪些投資機遇?——板塊投資策略:重點關注MiniLED、PCB、薄膜電容等細分方向。

重點公司推薦:

北方華創、中微公司、盛美上海、中芯國際、華虹半導體、士蘭微、斯達半導、兆易創新、瀾起科技、韋爾股份、恆玄科技、晶晨股份、歌爾股份、舜宇光學科技、長信科技、傳音控股、東山精密、橫店東磁等。

風險因素

全球宏觀經濟低迷風險,全球疫情持續,下游需求不及預期,創新不及預期,國際產業環境變化和貿易摩擦加劇風險,匯率波動等。

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