《大行報告》摩通:內房復甦預期推遲至今年第三季
摩根大通發表研究報告指,5月份內地樓市表現持續疲軟,5月首星期30個主要城市銷售額按年下降59%,跌幅按周擴大,雖然有部分發展商銷情略有改善,但由於目前疫情防控政策仍然趨嚴,預期行業復甦可能會進一步推遲到第三季。
摩通預計,內房股股價將保持疲軟,直至內地解除封城措施、需求大幅放鬆及銷售復甦,纔會見起色,建議投資者趁低買入,維持審慎看法,在開發商中看好中國海外(00688.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)及龍湖(00960.HK),物管股方面則看好保利物業(06049.HK)、華潤萬象生活(01209.HK)和中海物業(02669.HK)。
該行又指,城鎮化加快在中長期對低線縣市發展有所幫助,國務院日前發佈新的城鎮化路線圖,支持縣市人口發展,建議取消戶口限制,但自2019年以來,大多數人口少於300萬的城市已取消戶口限制,相信相關支持影響可能並不大。
據報碧桂園(02007.HK)有福州合資項目限制監管賬戶被凍結,公司迴應指相關問題得到解決。摩通認爲,此不應被解讀爲開發商預售資金管控政策整體收緊,或當局可能對個別公司收緊監管,但指出投資者情緒疲弱,因此將不會對股價近期受壓感到驚訝。
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