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植耀輝: 港股乏賣點難有太多憧憬 光伏股前景具挑戰
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,又是時候跟大家回顧德國股神科斯托蘭尼其中一句名言:「買入股票需要想像力,賣股票則要理性現實」。這句說話大部分投資者應該也不會感到陌生,甚至乎會認為是老生常談。不過當中真諦卻未必人人可以掌握,筆者自問亦處於領略階段。至於為何突然重提此名言,其實是想借此帶出港股現時之境況。港股年初至今累跌11.6%,最低曾見18,235點;從估值角度上恆指現時PE及PB分別為7.3倍及0.83倍,兩者均處於歷史平均之低水平,但除了「平」之外,似乎港股並未有其他「賣點」,始終企業盈利前景充滿變數,內地疫情繼續打擊各行各業,亦令今年內地經濟前景變得不明朗;而監管陰霾亦持續困擾中概股投資氣氛,若再加上未來美國息口上升之影響,即使想像力有多豐富,但港股就是欠缺吸引力。所以恆指未來維持低位橫行的機會相當高,當然部分板塊如新能源及航運股繼續看好,只是大部分板塊似乎暫難寄予厚望矣! 提到新能源股,一直以來筆者較好風電多於光伏,原因在於擔心光伏玻璃會出現產能過剩之情況。自去年起多間企業均擴充產能,部分將於今年下半年投產。早前中信建投便有報告指出,今年上半年預期將有27條新生產線落成,預期新增產能每日25,530噸,下半年則有35條落成,新增產能達到每日36,850噸,意味到今年年底內地光伏玻璃產能將達到每日11.23萬噸,按年增長達到123.2%,將令產能出現大幅過剩;另外,在生產成本方面,以純(石咸)及天然氣為主,兩者各佔成本約20%,由於兩者價格年初至今累升不少,可以預期行業競爭將進一步加劇,龍頭企業在成本控制上或存在優勢,不過在產能急增的情況下,筆者對相關產業仍會較為審慎。下週龍頭企業之一福萊特玻璃(06865.HK)將公布季績,且看能否為投資者帶來更多啟示。 (筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份) ************ 恆指將回補3月17號的全部裂口 耀才研究部稱,隔晚(21日)美股高開低走,三大指數收市跌逾1%並貼近全日低位。已公布業績的83家標普500指數有八成好過預期,支持股市向上,不過聯儲局主席鮑威爾指出通脹率比2%指標高出3倍,下次議息可能要加息半厘,美國10年期債息高見2.954厘,拖累股市氣氛。昨日金龍中國指數跌5%,相信在港科技股將繼續被看淡,黑期預示恆指將先回補3月17號的全部裂口低部即20,120點。京東(09618.HK)(JD.US)考慮宣派及派付特別現金股息,將於5月4日表決,不過需要留意,市場對增長型股份增發派息的看法不樂觀,可能意味著企業未來缺乏投資或增長的機會,不宜因消息而追入。 技術走勢上,恆指跌穿小雙頂頸線位置即21,100點,以量度跌幅起計,指數或需下試19,800點亦即回補3月17號的全部裂口。 (筆者為證監會持牌人)~
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